It must be an instinctual response for baseball fans to swoon over any dominant, franchise type player when they become available on the trade market, irrespective of how that player fits within their team's roster. So when the Toronto Blue Jays announced staff ace
Roy Halladay was on the trading block, many Giants fans and talk radio personalities began envisioning him joining the San Francisco rotation, then sitting back and watching the team steamroll it's way to the World Series. Even at a very high cost it would be worth it, they assert. After all, how could a team with
Tim Lincecum,
Matt Cain,
AND Roy Halladay possibly lose a post-season series???
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| Roy Halladay |
First of all, there's no question Halladay is a centerpiece, franchise player and easily one of the top five starting pitchers in baseball both now and, arguably, of the decade. He should remain a perennial Cy Young contender and a rock to build a staff around for the next several years, no matter where he plays. On the mound he brings a presence and intensity that compares him to a right-handed
Randy Johnson. A quick summary of his career:
- He's averaged over 16 wins per year and over 7 IP per start since 2002 (7.5 seasons)
- He finished in the top 5 in AL Cy Young balloting in 2002, 2003 (winner), 2006, 2007, and 2008. Injury shortened seasons kept him out of the running in 2004 & 2005.
- He has two career 20-win seasons
- Is a six time All-Star including as starter in 2009
The Giants are in the midst of a magical season and there have been year long expectations they would make a mid-season impact trade before the stretch run. Make no mistake, if they added Halladay, the Giants would own the sickest rotation baseball has seen in years. There are, however, a multitude of reasons why the Halladay to Giants rumor should remain fantasy.
The first and most obvious is that Halladay doesn't address a need. As alluded to already, the Giants have the best pitching staff in baseball. In the first half, they held opponents to two runs or less in 44% of their games. They have the best team ERA in baseball. They've tossed 13 shutouts and have a bullpen that ranks second, while throwing the fewest innings, in MLB. Recently reinstated #5 starter
Jonathan Sanchez is coming off the franchise's first no-hitter in 33 years. In a nutshell, the Giants pitching staff is consistently excellent, frequently dominant, and despite some minor injury worry surrounding Johnson, are poised to remain strong in the second half.
Secondly, assuming he stays healthy, Halladay would only give the Giants 10-12 regular season starts in '09. He would remain under contract for another year before becoming eligible for free agency after the 2010 season. How much better would the Giants record be in those 10-12 starts over whomever he replaced? Is it reasonable to assume he could come to the Giants and go 11-1 with the 13th worst offense in the NL? Halladay can lose a game 2-1 just as easily as Sanchez, or any other replacement can lose a game 5-1. He has also been on the DL once so far in 2009.
Lastly, precisely because of his greatness, the cost of acquiring Halladay will be excruciatingly high. In somewhat of a minor miracle after years of neglecting the draft, the Giants have built their farm system into one of the top five in baseball. Pitching prospects Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson, and catcher Buster Posey are universally projected to become good to great major leaguers in the next few years. No deal for Halladay will be made without giving up at least one of these players, as well as multiple other highly touted prospects. Despite never winning a World Series in San Francisco, the Giants should not act desperately in this moment, not when there is so much more potential on the horizon.
Simply put, the Giants need to trade for a bat, preferably upgrading somewhere on the infield. Everyone has known this all year and nothing's changed, the availability of Halladay notwithstanding. Keeping the Giants pitching as is, obtaining an everyday player for the final 50 games that can help the team tack on a few extra runs per week will be just a effectual, if not more, than Halladay in a dozen starts. And this sort of deal could be had at a cost much less that that needed to acquire a player of Halladay's caliber.
The Giants are not without their faults, but have been, record-wise, awesome so far. They deserve to play out the second half focused on earning their first playoff berth since 2003. However, any dealings they make in the next few weeks to compete in '09, even if it is to get more pitching, should reflect the confidence that the organization, as a whole, is heading in the right direction, and great things are bound for the years to come...
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